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Republicans Could Lose in November and Still Seize the Next House in January
A certified election victory may no longer guarantee a seat in Congress. The House majority can deny the oath, while courts may decline review. Mike Johnson kept Arizona Democrat Adelita Grijalva waiting 50 days in 2025. House Democrats used the same power against Indiana Republican Richard McIntyre in 1985.
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Art Credit: Edward Hopper, Night Shadows, 1921. A solitary figure crosses a lit street as surrounding buildings cast severe shadows across the pavement. Hopper leaves the source of danger outside the frame, while Republican House leaders prepare to block certified winners from taking their seats.
Voters can choose a winner, and Congress can still block that person from taking office.
Congress decides who takes a seat, and federal judges may lack power to intervene. Article I, Section 5 gives each chamber authority over elections and returns. In 1972, the Supreme Court placed a Senate seating dispute beyond judicial review. Judge Antonin Scalia later wrote that no other judge could review the House’s decision.
On January 3, the House can use that power when the new Congress convenes. Members-elect arrive without offices or staff. The outgoing Clerk presides until members elect a Speaker. Federal law requires the Clerk to enroll winners from a “regular election,” though Congress never defined that phrase.
The Clerk may leave a winner off the opening roll after questioning a certificate. Any member may also object before a colleague takes the oath. The Speaker orders the member-elect to stand aside, and members decide the objection by majority vote.
Mike Johnson used that authority in 2025. He kept the House in recess and withheld the oath from an Arizona winner for 50 days. Voters elected her on September 23, but Arizona lacked representation until November 12.
Vacancies reduce the number of votes required for House control. A party trailing by four seats could gain a majority through coordinated objections.
In Powell v. McCormack, the Supreme Court set one limit in 1969. The justices barred House members from rejecting a qualified winner over character concerns. They did not decide disputes over which candidate won.
House Democrats relied on that distinction in 1985. Majority Leader Jim Wright introduced House Resolution 1 and denied both Indiana candidates a seat. Rick McIntyre held an Indiana election certificate, but members approved the resolution 238-177. Democrats counted ballots for four months, then seated Frank McCloskey by four votes. McIntyre sued and lost.
In December 2018, Steny Hoyer said House Democrats would not seat Mark Harris. Harris won North Carolina’s Ninth District, but state officials failed to certify the result. Officials dissolved the elections board after investigators documented absentee ballot fraud. Republicans can, notably, cite that decision in January 2027.
Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes sued Speaker Mike Johnson over his 2025 delay. Johnson administered the oath only after Senate Democrats voted on a spending bill. Mayes failed to compel Johnson through the lawsuit, while Senate Democrats secured action through political leverage.
Chuck Schumer and Alex Padilla created the Senate Election Protection Task Force in April 2026. Nine Democratic senators and former Attorney General Eric Holder joined them. Participants prepared legal and political responses to possible election interference.
On April 29, 2026, six justices ruled that Louisiana lawmakers violated the Fourteenth Amendment when they drew a second majority-Black district. Justice Samuel Alito wrote that the Voting Rights Act never required lawmakers to create that district. He found no compelling justification for their use of race when drawing its boundaries. Republicans may cite Alito’s analysis when challenging members-elect from comparable districts.
Schumer convened another exercise on July 22 to examine injunctions, lawsuits, and rapid responses. Nearly a dozen senators met for two hours. Schumer’s staff presented three scenarios, including operatives targeting voters with AI videos and federal agents appearing near Texas polling places. Staff scheduled the session after Trump’s July 16 address.
Joe Morelle, the ranking Democrat on House Administration, assembled a separate task force. Members studied House seating rules and prepared for disputes extending beyond January. Democratic members-elect who face objections should remain on the floor, take the oath, and vote on each resolution.
Before November, Democratic leaders should count support for each seating vote and publish the totals. Every Democratic candidate and incumbent should pledge to seat every certified winner. Caucus staff should ask Republican members to sign the same pledge and record every refusal. Republicans representing districts that Democrats carried in 2024 should answer publicly.
Caucus lawyers will need to review the Clerk’s opening roll and prepare a challenge before the House convenes. Meanwhile, democratic leaders should appoint a January 3rd floor manager to demand recorded votes for each objection. In Advance, governors and secretaries of state will need to agree on wording that documents a “regular election” under federal law. Schumer and Padilla should rehearse a January seating conflict during their next meeting.
In December, voters will need to monitor county canvassing boards. Michigan lawmakers defined certification as a ministerial and nondiscretionary duty. Republican supervisors Tom Crosby and Peggy Judd tabled the Cochise County canvass on November 28, 2022. A judge, however, ordered both supervisors to certify three days later.
Sundials across Europe carried one inscription: serius est quam cogitas - later than you think. Shadows lengthen before dark. Voters choose in November, but members-elect may determine House control on January 3.
The work continues,
Wendy
*A note on precedent: Some commentators claim the outgoing Republican majority could refuse to seat winners while challenges remain pending. The Twentieth Amendment ends that House on January 3. The incoming House judges its own members.
Sources
Constitutional and Statutory Authority
Cornell Legal Information Institute. “Article I, Section 5, Clause 1: Congressional Authority over Elections, Returns, and Qualifications.”
https://www.law.cornell.edu/
Cornell Legal Information Institute. “2 U.S.C. § 26: Roll of Representatives-Elect.”
https://www.law.cornell.edu/
U.S. Government Publishing Office. Deschler’s Precedents of the United States House of Representatives. Volume 1, Chapter 2, § 4, “The Clerk’s Roll.”
https://www.govinfo.gov/
Roudebush v. Hartke, 405 U.S. 15 (1972).
https://caselaw.findlaw.com/
Powell v. McCormack, 395 U.S. 486 (1969).
https://supreme.justia.com/
Morgan v. United States, 801 F.2d 445 (D.C. Cir. 1986).
https://law.justia.com/cases/
House Seating Precedents and the January 2027 Scenario
U.S. Government Publishing Office. Precedents of the United States House of Representatives. Volume 3, Chapter 9, § 20, “Ninety-Ninth Congress, 1985-1986.”
https://www.govinfo.gov/
McIntyre v. O’Neill, 603 F. Supp. 1053 (D.D.C. 1985).
https://law.justia.com/cases/
Felicia Sonmez and Eli Rosenberg. “Hoyer Says House Will Not Seat a North Carolina Republican Amid Questions About Integrity of Election.” The Washington Post, December 28, 2018.
https://www.washingtonpost.
Scott Wong. “Arizona Democrat Adelita Grijalva Sworn In After Contentious Seven-Week Delay.” NBC News, November 12, 2025.
https://www.nbcnews.com/
Arizona Mirror. “Johnson Sets Record Refusing to Swear In Adelita Grijalva for 36 Days After She Won Election.” October 29, 2025.
https://azmirror.com/briefs/
Hunter Walker and Josh Kovensky. “Inside the ‘Red Team’ House Democratic Task Force Running Election War Games.” Talking Points Memo, April 29, 2026.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/
Steve Israel. “This Unassuming Congressman May Hold the Key to the Midterms.” The Hill, June 10, 2026.
https://thehill.com/opinion/
Louisiana v. Callais
Congressional Research Service. “Congressional Redistricting: High Court Narrows Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais.” Legal Sidebar LSB11431, May 14, 2026.
https://www.congress.gov/crs-
The July 2026 Escalation
Miller Center, University of Virginia. “July 16, 2026: Address to the Nation on Election Security.” July 16, 2026.
https://millercenter.org/the-
PolitiFact. “Fact-Checking Trump’s Address on China, the 2020 Election and What Documents Show.” PBS NewsHour, July 17, 2026.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/
D’Angelo Gore, Robert Farley, Lori Robertson, Paul Cuno-Booth, and Jessica McDonald. “FactChecking Trump’s Election Security Speech.” FactCheck.org, July 17, 2026.
https://www.factcheck.org/
MS NOW. “Schumer Convenes Democrats to Prepare for Election ‘Doomsday’ Scenarios.” July 23, 2026.
https://www.ms.now/news/
U.S. Department of Homeland Security. “DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin Sends Letters to Secretaries of State Warning About Non-Citizens on Voter Rolls.” July 17, 2026.
https://www.dhs.gov/news/2026/
NBC News. “DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin Threatens States Over Elections After Trump Speech.” July 17, 2026.
https://www.nbcnews.com/
Senate Democratic Planning
Senate Democratic Leadership. “Leader Schumer and Senator Padilla Launch First-Ever Senate Election Observer Program to Protect 2026 Midterms as Trump Escalates Attacks on Free and Fair Elections.” June 25, 2026.
https://www.democrats.senate.
Senate Democratic Leadership. “As Trump and Republicans Wage Assault on Free and Fair Elections, Leader Schumer, Senate Democrats, and Top Elections Experts Gear Up to Combat Key Election Threats.” June 3, 2026.
https://www.democrats.senate.
Litigation Over the Election Orders
Elias Law Group. “Elias Law Group Files Lawsuit Challenging President Trump’s Unlawful Attempt to Disenfranchise Voters and Dictate Election Rules.” March 31, 2025.
https://elias.law/press-
Elias Law Group. “Elias Law Group Files Lawsuit Challenging President Trump’s Executive Order Attacking Mail-In Voting.” April 1, 2026.
https://elias.law/press-
Nicholas Riccardi. “Judge Refuses to Block Trump Order to Limit Mail Voting. There’s No Immediate Effect on the Midterms.” Associated Press, May 28, 2026.
https://apnews.com/article/
Votebeat. “Federal Judge Blocks Trump Effort to Restrict Mail Voting.” June 25, 2026.
https://www.votebeat.org/
Jim Saksa. “Postal Service Appeals Court Order Blocking Trump’s Anti-Mail-Voting Order.” Democracy Docket, July 7, 2026.
https://www.democracydocket.
Associated Press. “U.S. Appeals Court Upholds Injunction That Blocks Trump’s Order to Create a Federal Voter List.” July 26, 2026.
https://apnews.com/article/
Federal Election Administration
Votebeat. “Trump Move to Neutralize Election Assistance Commission Raises Questions for 2026.” July 13, 2026.
https://www.votebeat.org/
Greg Bluestein, Caleb Groves, and Shaddi Abusaid. “FBI Fulton County Election Raid: Here’s What We Know So Far.” The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, updated February 10, 2026.
https://www.ajc.com/politics/
State and Local Responses
Oren Oppenheim. “State Officials Preparing if the Federal Government Tries Interfering With How They Run Elections.” ABC News, July 21, 2026.
https://abcnews.com/Politics/
Stateline. “Blue States Push to Ban ICE at the Polls Amid Federal Voter-Intimidation Fears.” March 5, 2026.
https://stateline.org/2026/03/
Nine Secretaries of State. Letter to Markwayne Mullin regarding DHS statements about ICE and immigration enforcement at polling locations. March 9, 2026.
https://www.maine.gov/sos/
CNN, State of the Union. “Interview With U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Markwayne Mullin.” Interview conducted by Kasie Hunt, June 14, 2026.
https://transcripts.cnn.com/
Certification and Election-Denial Candidates
States United Democracy Center. “New Research: States United Launches ElectionDeniers.org Tracking for 2026 Midterm Elections.” May 4, 2026.
https://statesunited.org/
Democracy Docket. “Arizona Cochise County Election Certification Refusal - Hobbs v. Crosby.”
https://www.democracydocket.
Michigan Voting. “County Canvass and Certification.”
https://www.michiganvoting.
Lauren Miller Karalunas. “How Elections Are Certified in Battleground States.” Brennan Center for Justice, October 10, 2024.
https://www.brennancenter.org/
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