https://mitchthelawyer.substack.com/p/someone-made-a-fortune-off-the-iran
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Let me walk you through what happened on March 23, 2026, because the facts demand your attention.
All weekend, President Trump threatened to obliterate Iran’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz was not opened within 48 hours. The rhetoric was nuclear-grade. Markets were closed. Liquidity was thin. Traders around the world were bracing for escalation.
Then something changed.
At approximately 6:49 AM EST on Monday morning, someone started buying. S&P 500 E-mini futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange saw a massive, isolated spike in volume, breaking from an otherwise subdued premarket backdrop. Senator Chris Murphy reported approximately $1.5 billion in notional S&P futures were purchased. At the same time, roughly $580 million in crude oil futures were sold on the West Texas Intermediate market. Bloomberg analyzed the same trading window over the prior five business days.
The average volume was around 700 contracts. That Monday, approximately 6,200 contracts moved in a single minute. Energy Aspects head of derivatives Tim Skirrow confirmed the activity was six times larger than normal.
Sixteen minutes later, at 7:05 AM, Trump posted that the United States and Iran had engaged in “very good and productive conversations” and that he was calling a five-day moratorium on strikes.
Iran denied those conversations ever happened. Their Foreign Ministry stated plainly that no dialogue between Tehran and Washington was underway.
Let that land. Someone moved billions in futures contracts minutes before a presidential announcement that reversed an entire weekend of war rhetoric. And the country on the other end of the so-called negotiation said no talks took place.
This is not a one-time event. The same suspicious trading patterns surfaced around Trump’s tariff reversals in April 2025. Similar activity appeared ahead of the Maduro operation in Venezuela, where one trader made $436,000 on a $32,000 Polymarket bet correctly predicting the timing of the capture.
CNN reported that another anonymous trader maintained a 93 percent win rate across dozens of five-figure wagers correctly predicting unannounced U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran, netting nearly $967,000 since 2024. A separate Polymarket account called “Magamyman” pulled in more than $553,000 in a single day betting on the removal of Ayatollah Khamenei, hours before an Israeli airstrike killed him.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is the agency responsible for policing this kind of trading. For months, Trump’s CFTC took no meaningful enforcement action. Its former head of enforcement, Margaret Ryan, resigned after six months on the job. On March 31, the CFTC’s new enforcement director, David Miller, declared at NYU School of Law that insider trading in prediction markets is now a top enforcement priority.
No charges have been filed. Congress has introduced the PREDICT Act to bar executive branch officials and their families from prediction market trading, and a bipartisan bill from Representative Blake Moore would ban wagers on war, terrorism, and assassinations. None of it has become law.
Meanwhile, Anthony Scaramucci recently stated publicly that Don Jr. has said the family intends to become the richest family in the world before they leave the presidency. The Trump family now holds advisory roles at Polymarket and Kalshi, runs Truth Predict through Trump Media, and has built a crypto empire that House Judiciary Committee Democrats documented as generating hundreds of millions in personal enrichment since the 2024 campaign.
Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman called this pattern treasonous. Not because of the money alone. Because foreign adversaries are watching these markets in real time. Every suspiciously timed trade broadcasts to Russia, China, and Saudi Arabia that someone with access to classified military information is willing to act on it for profit. As Krugman explained on NPR, if financial media outlets spotted the anomaly within hours, foreign intelligence services are doing the same. That makes this functionally indistinguishable from selling national secrets.
Martha Stewart went to federal prison for five months after lying to investigators about a stock trade that saved her $45,673. The SEC prosecuted. The FBI investigated. The system worked.
Someone appears to have made hundreds of millions trading on war. And the system has done nothing.
That is not a political opinion. That is a fact pattern that demands investigation.
Mitch Jackson, Esq.
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