Monday, October 27, 2025

Some Ramifications of the end of American / Western Hegemony: The Case of Rare Earth Minerals, and the Economic and Military Effects of China Restricting Access

1). “Shocking U.S. Defeat: China's Rare Earth Checkmate Is NOT What Media Pretends”, Oct 13, 2025, Pascal Lottaz discusses the Chinese actions to limit U.S. Military Industrial Complex access to Rare Earth Minerals, Neutrality Studies, duration of video 30:14, at < https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eX3WlHcTvF8 > .

2). “China’s New Rare Earth and Magnet Restrictions Threaten U.S. Defense Supply Chains”, Oct 9, 2025, Gracelin Baskaran, Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), at < https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-new-rare-earth-and-magnet-restrictions-threaten-us-defense-supply-chains >.

3). “The Consequences of China’s New Rare Earths Export Restrictions”, Apr 14, 2025, Gracelin Baskaran & Meredith Schwartz, Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), at < https://www.csis.org/analysis/consequences-chinas-new-rare-earths-export-restrictions >.

4). “What China’s Ban on Rare Earths Processing Technology Exports Means”, Jan 8, 2024, Gracelin Baskaran, Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), at < https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-chinas-ban-rare-earths-processing-technology-exports-means >.

5). “Rare Earth Elements: Where in the World Are They?”, Nov 23, 2021, Nicholas LePan, Visual Capitalist, at < https://www.visualcapitalist.com/rare-earth-elements-where-in-the-world-are-they/ >.

6). “The REAL reason why Trump is attacking Latin America”, Oct 25, 2025, Ben Norton discusses the moves of the U.S. Ruling class, as embodied in the Donald Trump regime, Geopolitical Economy Report, duration of video 36:42, at < https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcWH-LPyTow&t=2s >.

7). “Chas Freeman: Imperial Overstretch - 500 Years of Dominance Come to an End”, Oct 25, 2025, Glen Diesen interviews Chas Freeman, Glen Diesen, duration of video 45:23, at < https://glenndiesen.substack.com/p/chas-freeman-imperial-overstretch >.

~~ recommended by dmorista ~~

Introduction by desmond morista: The Trump Regime, that has in general been successful in implementing its agenda on the American people (taxing their opponents to reward their pals) is on much shakier ground in international affairs as most of the world perceives that the U.S. is much weaker than it was even just one or two years ago and certainly than was the case a few decades ago. In Item 1)., “Shocking U.S. Defeat: ….”, Pascal Lottaz points out that China has taken action to basically cut off the U.S. Military Industrial Complex (MIC) from access to the 17 Rare Earth Elements (REEs). These are materials that are absolutely essential to producing everything from cell phones, to computers, to sophisticated weapons. The U.S. military production operation reportedly has about 1.5 million pounds of REEs stockpiled, but that will last only a limited amount of time. Item 2)., “China’s New Rare Earth ….”; Item 3)., “The Consequences of ….”; and Item 4)., “What China’s Ban ….”, all address aspects of the Chinese ban on REEs for use producing weapons by the U.S. MIC. In Item 2). the discussion points out that: “The new measures mark a sharp escalation in Beijing’s long-running strategy to weaponize its dominance in rare earths. China announced a ban on rare earth extraction and separation technologies on December 21, 2023. On April 4, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce introduced export restrictions on seven rare earth elements in retaliation for President Trump’s new tariffs on Chinese goods”. (Emphasis added) In Item 3)., the author points out that each “.... F-35 fighter jet contains over 900 pounds of REEs. An Arleigh Burke-class DDG-51 destroyer requires approximately 5,200 pounds, while a Virginia-class submarine uses around 9,200 pounds.”

In Item 5)., “Rare Earth Elements: ….” provides an interesting graphic showing where most deposits of REEs are located. The location of deposits is pretty daunting for U.S. interests that want to build mines and processing plants. China is home to 37.9%, Vietnam has 18.9%, Brazil is next with 18.1%, Russia has 10.9%, and India is where 5.9% are located. In other words 91.7% of the world's REEs are located in places that are friendly with or at the least are geographically very close to China. Mines take 3 – 5 years to build and get operational and processing centers as much or more. All this gives an incentive to the U.S. ruling class to use military force now, before the balance of forces becomes too tough to “win” some sort of war. Unfortunately some analysts say that the U.S. rulers are ready to use nuclear weapons.

Item 6)., “The REAL reason ….” discusses the reasons that Trump is working on starting a war with Venezuela. A basic issue that Norton does not discuss is the point that John Mearsheimer always makes: namely that making sure there is no real state level defiance of U.S. power in the Western Hemisphere has served the U.S. ruling class well. They never have had to worry about serious problems in “their back yard”. This might be changing as China and Russia become more powerful. Already the economic realities are working against the U.S. rulers and in favor of the Chinese who increasingly dominate the trader relationships of Latin American societies. The result is that Trump is making absurd claims that short range “cigarette boats near Venezuela are taking drugs to the U.S. well about 1,300 miles away. After plenty of criticism and after several people pointed out that the drug traffickers mostly use the Pacific Coast, U.S. warplanes have now bombed more than one boat there killing several people. The U.S. regime has claimed that the Socialist President of Colombia is a drug trafficker, an absurd charge belied by the close relationships between proven drug trafficking Colombian Presidents and U.S. politicians including Trump and other presidents. Another glaring issue, not taken up by Norton, is that most cocaine now leaves from Ecuador in banana boats owned by the family of the President of Ecuador.
















Finally Item 7)., “Chas Freeman: Imperial Overstretch ….” provides another erudite discussion of the reasons for the bullying and crass and hard nosed tactics used by the Americans in dealing with other countries. Freeman, who served as a high official in various posts in the U.S. government is appalled at what he sees and thinks the U.S. is coming apart.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx



1). “Shocking U.S. Defeat: China's Rare Earth Checkmate Is NOT What Media Pretends”, Oct 13, 2025, Pascal Lottaz discusses the Chinese actions to limit U.S. Military Industrial Complex access to Rare Earth Minerals, Neutrality Studies, duration of video 30:14, at < https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eX3WlHcTvF8 > .

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

China’s New Rare Earth and Magnet Restrictions Threaten U.S. Defense Supply Chains


In advance of President Donald Trump’s upcoming visit to South Korea later this month—where he is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping for the first time since 2019—China announced that it has expanded its restrictions on rare earth and permanent magnet exports. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce’s Announcement No. 61 of 2025 implements the strictest rare earth and permanent magnet export controls to date. The move both strengthens Beijing’s leverage in upcoming talks while also undercutting U.S. efforts to bolster its industrial base.

Q1: What is new about today’s rare earth and permanent magnet export restrictions?

A1: The new export controls mark the first time China has applied the foreign direct product rule (FDPR)—a mechanism introduced in 1959 and long used by Washington to restrict semiconductor exports to China. The FDPR enables the United States to regulate the sale of foreign-made products if they incorporate U.S. technology, software, or equipment, even when produced by non-U.S. companies abroad. In effect, if U.S. technology appears anywhere in the supply chain, Washington can assert jurisdiction.

Under the measures announced today, foreign firms will now be required to obtain Chinese government approval to export magnets that contain even trace amounts of Chinese-origin rare earth materials—or that were produced using Chinese mining, processing, or magnet-making technologies. The new licensing framework will apply to foreign-produced rare earth magnets and select semiconductor materials that contain at least 0.1 percent heavy rare earth elements sourced from China.

Given China’s dominance in the sector—accounting for roughly 70 percent of rare earth mining, 90 percent of separation and processing, and 93 percent of magnet manufacturing—these developments will have major national security implications.

Q2: What do the new restrictions mean for the defense and semiconductor industries?

A2: Rare earths are crucial for various defense technologies, including F-35 fighter jets, Virginia- and Columbia-class submarines, Tomahawk missiles, radar systems, Predator unmanned aerial vehicles, and the Joint Direct Attack Munition series of smart bombs. The United States is already struggling to keep pace in the production of these systems. Meanwhile, China is rapidly scaling up its munitions manufacturing capacity and acquiring advanced weapons platforms and equipment at a rate estimated to be five to six times faster than that of the United States.

The newly announced restrictions represent China’s most consequential measures to date targeting the defense sector. Under the new rules, starting December 1, 2025, companies with any affiliation to foreign militaries—including those of the United States—will be largely denied export licenses. The Ministry of Commerce also made clear that any requests to use rare earths for military purposes will be automatically rejected. In effect, the policy seeks to prevent direct or indirect contributions of Chinese-origin rare earths or related technologies to foreign defense supply chains.

Even before these latest measures, the U.S. defense industrial base faced significant challenges and had limited production capacity and limited ability to rapidly scale to meet rising defense technology needs. The new restrictions will only deepen these vulnerabilities, further widening the capability gap and allowing China to accelerate the expansion of its military strength at a faster pace than the United States at a time when tension is rising in the Indo-Pacific region.

Additionally, export license applications for rare earth materials used in highly advanced technologies, including sub-14-nanometer semiconductors, next-generation memory chips, semiconductor manufacturing or testing equipment, will now be subject to case-by-case review by Chinese authorities. Companies will likely need to provide detailed documentation on end users, technical specifications, and intended applications before any export is authorized. The individualized review process gives Chinese authorities significant discretion to delay, deny, or condition exports, effectively introducing a new layer of strategic control over the global supply of rare earth inputs critical to advanced computing and defense technologies.

Q3: How is China tightening control over the outflow of its skills and technologies?

A3: Under the new measures, Chinese nationals are barred from engaging in or providing support for overseas projects involving rare earth exploration, extraction, processing, or magnet manufacturing unless they first obtain explicit authorization from Chinese authorities. By tightening control over the movement of expertise, China aims to prevent the outflow of proprietary technologies and know-how that have made it the global leader in rare earth mining and magnet production. These restrictions build on the rare earth processing technology export ban in December 2023.

Q4: Why are the new export restrictions likely a negotiation tactic?

A4: In its announcement, the Ministry of Commerce stated that China remains open to enhancing communication and cooperation with other countries through both multilateral and bilateral export control dialogues. The ministry emphasized that such dialogue seeks to promote compliant trade while protecting the security and stability of global industrial and supply chains.

Q5: How do these restrictions build on China’s earlier rare earth export controls?

A5: The new measures mark a sharp escalation in Beijing’s long-running strategy to weaponize its dominance in rare earths. China announced a ban on rare earth extraction and separation technologies on December 21, 2023. On April 4, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce introduced export restrictions on seven rare earth elements in retaliation for President Trump’s new tariffs on Chinese goods.

Subsequent diplomacy offered only a temporary reprieve. During the May 11 talks in Switzerland, U.S. and Chinese officials agreed to a 90-day tariff truce, which included removing U.S. companies from China’s trade blacklist and restoring their access to rare earth supplies. Yet stability proved short-lived: U.S. manufacturers soon began shutting down production amid ongoing shortages, as China delayed the issuance of export licenses despite not formally abandoning the deal. Tensions flared again when President Trump accused Beijing of backtracking on its commitments. Ultimately, on June 11, 2025, following two days of negotiations in London attended by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, both sides reached a new trade framework—but the episode underscored how Beijing’s rare earth policy has evolved into a potent instrument of economic and geopolitical leverage.

Q6: What is the United States doing to build its rare earth and permanent magnet capabilities to reduce China’s leverage?

A6: Noveon Magnetics is currently the only manufacturer of rare earth magnets in the United States. This week, Noveon Magnetics and Lynas Rare Earths announced a memorandum of understanding to establish a strategic partnership focused on building a scalable, domestic supply chain for rare earth permanent magnets in the United States.

In July 2025, as part of a landmark agreement, the Department of Defense (recently renamed the Department of War) invested $400 million in equity into MP Materials, making the U.S. government the company’s largest shareholder. The deal also includes a 10-year price floor commitment of $110 per kilogram for MP Materials’ NdPr (neodymium-praseodymium) products, designed to protect the commercial viability of the company amidst low prices stemming from Chinese overproduction. Additionally, the Department of War’s Office of Strategic Capital (OSC) has extended a $150 million loan to expand MP Materials’ Mountain Pass, California, facility, adding heavy rare earth separation capabilities to strengthen domestic processing capacity. MP Materials has also announced plans to build its second U.S. magnet manufacturing facility, known as the “10X Facility.” The Department of War has entered into a 10-year offtake agreement for 100 percent of the facility’s magnet output. It will take time to ramp up these capabilities. Until then, China retains a significant amount of leverage over supply chains crucial for national and economic security.

Gracelin Baskaran is director of the Critical Minerals Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The Consequences of China’s New Rare Earths Export Restrictions


On April 4, China’s Ministry of Commerce imposed export restrictions on seven rare earth elements (REEs) and magnets used in the defense, energy, and automotive sectors in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff increases on Chinese products. The new restrictions apply to 7 of 17 REEs—samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium—and requires companies to secure special export licenses to export the minerals and magnets.

Q1: To what extent will the most recent export restrictions on rare earths impact U.S. sourcing of these critical minerals for defense technologies?

A1: There are various types of export restrictions: non-automatic licensing, tariffs, quotas, and an outright ban. The new restrictions are not a ban; rather, they require firms to apply for a license to export rare earths. This development has three implications: first, there will likely be a pause in exports as the Chinese government establishes this licensing system. Second, there is also likely to be disruptions in supply to some U.S. firms given that the announcement also placed 16 U.S. entities on its export control list, limiting them from receiving dual-use goods. All but one of the firms on the list are in the defense and aerospace industries. It is unclear how China will implement the new licensing system. And third, the licensing system may be dynamic and could incentivize countries across the world to cooperate with China to prevent disruptions in their rare earths supply.

Q2: What is the significance of the focus on heavy rare earths given U.S. supply chain vulnerabilities?

A2: The restrictions apply to seven medium and heavy rare earths: samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium. The United States is particularly vulnerable for these supply chains. Until 2023, China accounted for 99 percent of global heavy REEs processing, with only minimal output from a refinery in Vietnam. However, that facility has been shut down for the past year due to a tax dispute, effectively giving China a monopoly over supply. China did not impose restrictions on light rare earths, for which a more diverse set of countries undertake processing.

Q3: Why are rare earths significant to U.S. national security?

A3: REEs are crucial for a range of defense technologies, including F-35 fighter jets, Virginia- and Columbia-class submarines, Tomahawk missiles, radar systems, Predator unmanned aerial vehicles, and the Joint Direct Attack Munition series of smart bombs. For example, the F-35 fighter jet contains over 900 pounds of REEs. An Arleigh Burke-class DDG-51 destroyer requires approximately 5,200 pounds, while a Virginia-class submarine uses around 9,200 pounds.

The United States is already on the back foot when it comes to manufacturing these defense technologies. China is rapidly expanding its munitions production and acquiring advanced weapons systems and equipment at a pace five to six times faster than the United States. While China is preparing with a wartime mindset, the United States continues to operate under peacetime conditions. Even before the latest restrictions, the U.S. defense industrial base struggled with limited capacity and lacked the ability to scale up production to meet defense technology demands. Further bans on critical minerals inputs will only widen the gap, enabling China to strengthen its military capabilities more quickly than the United States.

Q4: Is the U.S. rare earths industry ready to fill the gap in the event of a shortfall?

A4: No. There is no heavy rare earths separation happening in the United States at present. The development of these capabilities is currently underway. In its 2024 National Defense Industrial Strategy, the Department of Defense (DOD) set a goal to develop a complete mine-to-magnet REE supply chain that can meet all U.S. defense needs by 2027. Since 2020, the DOD has committed over $439 million toward building domestic supply chains. In 2020, the Pentagon awarded MP Materials $9.6 million through the DPA Title III program for a light rare earths separation facility at Mountain Pass, California. In 2022, the Pentagon awarded an additional $35 million for a heavy rare earths processing facility. These facilities would be the first of their kind in the United States, fully integrating the rare earths supply chain from mining, separating, and leaching in Mountain Pass to refining and magnet production in Fort Worth, Texas. But even when these facilities are fully operational, MP Materials will only be producing 1,000 tons of neodymium-boron-iron (NdFeB) magnets by the end of 2025—less than 1 percent of the 138,000 tons of NdFeB magnets China produced in 2018. In 2024, MP Materials announced record production of 1,300 tons of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide. In the same year, China produced an estimated 300,000 tons of NdFeB magnets.

The DOD has thrown its support behind Lynas Rare Earth’s U.S. subsidiary, Lynas USA, as well. The company was awarded a $30.4 million DPA Title III grant in 2021 for a U.S. separation facility for light REEs and another $120 million in 2022 for a heavy REE processing facility. These DPA investments are an important step in building completely independent supply chains for REE magnets.  

Even with recent investments, the United States is a long way off from meeting the DOD’s goal for a mine-to-magnet REE supply chain independent of China, and it is even further from rivaling foreign adversaries in this strategic industry. U.S. capabilities are largely early-stage. For example, in January 2025, USA Rare Earths produced its first sample of dysprosium oxide purified to 99.1 percent. Produced using ore from the Round Top deposit in Texas and processed at a research facility in Wheat Ridge Colorado, the company has called the development a breakthrough for the domestic rare earths industry. However, significant work remains to turn production of samples in a laboratory into full scale commercial production capable of reducing reliance on China. Developing mining and processing capabilities requires a long-term effort, meaning the United States will be on the back foot for the foreseeable future.

Q5: Could the United States have seen this coming?

A5: Yes. A number of policies have foreshadowed that REE export restrictions were on the horizon. China first weaponized rare earths in 2010 when it banned exports to Japan over a fishing trawler dispute. Between 2023 and 2025, China began imposing export restrictions of strategic materials to the United States, including gallium, germanium, antimony, graphite, and tungsten.

In 2023, the Select Committee on the Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party published a report titled Reset, Prevent, Build: A Strategy to Win America's Economic Competition with the Chinese Communist Party. It recommended that “Congress should incentivize the production of rare earth element magnets, which are the principal end-use for rare earth elements and used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, wireless technology, and countless other products.” Specifically, it advocated for Congress to establish tax incentives to promote U.S. manufacturing.

In December 2023, China imposed a ban of REE extraction and separation technologies. It had a notable impact on developing REE supply chain capabilities outside of China due to two main factors. First, China possesses specialized technical expertise in this field that other countries do not. For instance, it has an absolute advantage in solvent extraction processing techniques for rare earths, an area where Western companies have faced challenges both in implementing advanced technological operations and in addressing environmental concerns. Second, while multiple facilities for separation, processing, and manufacturing are currently being built, completing construction and bringing them fully online will take several years.

Q6: Are there any international partners from which the United States could alternatively source heavy rare earths and fill the supply gap?

A6: While several countries are working to develop their light and heavy rare earths deposits, China maintains a monopoly on refined heavy rare earths for the time being. Australia, Brazil, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Japan, and Vietnam all have initiatives and investments underway to bolster key REE mining, processing, and research and development (R&D) as well as magnet manufacturing. For the United States to build alternative sourcing partners for long-term supply chain security, it is important to continue to provide financial and diplomatic support to ensure the success of these initiatives.

Australia is working to develop its Browns Range to become the first significant dysprosium producer outside of China. The deposit has estimated dysprosium reserves of 2,294 tons, to be unlocked in a multistage process resulting in 279,000 kg of dysprosium per year. However, much work remains to be done to build processing and refining capacity outside of China. Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths is the largest producer of separated rare earths outside of China, but still sends oxides to China for refining. Australia is expected to be reliant on China for REE refining until at least 2026.

Working with international partners can also help to overcome gaps in technological know-how when it comes to REE separation and processing. A few countries lead the way in developing critical minerals and REE-specific R&D initiatives to support the development of the strategic sector. The Australian Critical Minerals Research and Development Hub is working to boost international R&D cooperation on critical minerals. The hub includes rare earth and downstream processing initiatives lead by government agencies working in partnership with industry and universities to boost technical capacity. Japan has the Center for Rare Earths Research within its Muroran Institute of Technology as well as a joint initiative with Vietnam to improve REE extraction and processing at the Rare Earth Research and Technology Transfer Centre in Hanoi. The initiative was launched in 2012 as Japan looked to strengthen and diversify its REE supply chains in response to China’s REE export ban in 2010.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Rare Earth Elements: Where in the World Are They?



Rare Earth Elements Reserves

This was originally posted on Elements. Sign up to the free mailing list to get beautiful visualizations on natural resource megatrends in your email every week.

Rare earth elements are a group of metals that are critical ingredients for a greener economy, and the location of the reserves for mining are increasingly important and valuable.

This infographic features data from the United States Geological Society (USGS) which reveals the countries with the largest known reserves of rare earth elements (REEs).

What are Rare Earth Metals?

REEs, also called rare earth metals or rare earth oxides, or lanthanides, are a set of 17 silvery-white soft heavy metals.

The 17 rare earth elements are: lanthanum (La), cerium (Ce), praseodymium (Pr), neodymium (Nd), promethium (Pm), samarium (Sm), europium (Eu), gadolinium (Gd), terbium (Tb), dysprosium (Dy), holmium (Ho), erbium (Er), thulium (Tm), ytterbium (Yb), lutetium (Lu), scandium (Sc), and yttrium (Y).

Scandium and yttrium are not part of the lanthanide family, but end users include them because they occur in the same mineral deposits as the lanthanides and have similar chemical properties.

The term “rare earth” is a misnomer as rare earth metals are actually abundant in the Earth’s crust. However, they are rarely found in large, concentrated deposits on their own, but rather among other elements instead.

Rare Earth Elements, How Do They Work?

Most rare earth elements find their uses as catalysts and magnets in traditional and low-carbon technologies. Other important uses of rare earth elements are in the production of special metal alloys, glass, and high-performance electronics.

Alloys of neodymium (Nd) and samarium (Sm) can be used to create strong magnets that withstand high temperatures, making them ideal for a wide variety of mission critical electronics and defense applications.

End-use% of 2019 Rare Earth Demand
Permanent Magnets38%
Catalysts23%
Glass Polishing Powder and Additives13%
Metallurgy and Alloys8%
Battery Alloys9%
Ceramics, Pigments and Glazes5%
Phosphors3%
Other4%

Source

The strongest known magnet is an alloy of neodymium with iron and boron. Adding other REEs such as dysprosium and praseodymium can change the performance and properties of magnets.

Hybrid and electric vehicle engines, generators in wind turbines, hard disks, portable electronics and cell phones require these magnets and elements. This role in technology makes their mining and refinement a point of concern for many nations.

For example, one megawatt of wind energy capacity requires 171 kg of rare earths, a single U.S. F-35 fighter jet requires about 427 kg of rare earths, and a Virginia-class nuclear submarine uses nearly 4.2 tonnes.

Global Reserves of Rare Earth Minerals

China tops the list for mine production and reserves of rare earth elements, with 44 million tons in reserves and 140,000 tons of annual mine production.

While Vietnam and Brazil have the second and third most reserves of rare earth metals with 22 million tons in reserves and 21 million tons, respectively, their mine production is among the lowest of all the countries at only 1,000 tons per year each.

CountryMine Production 2020Reserves% of Total Reserves
China140,00044,000,00038.0%
Vietnam1,00022,000,00019.0%
Brazil1,00021,000,00018.1%
Russia2,70012,000,00010.4%
India3,0006,900,0006.0%
Australia17,0004,100,0003.5%
United States38,0001,500,0001.3%
Greenland-1,500,0001.3%
Tanzania-890,0000.8%
Canada-830,0000.7%
South Africa-790,0000.7%
Other Countries100310,0000.3%
Burma30,000N/AN/A
Madagascar8,000N/AN/A
Thailand2,000N/AN/A
Burundi500N/AN/A
World Total243,300115,820,000100%

While the United States has 1.5 million tons in reserves, it is largely dependent on imports from China for refined rare earths.

Ensuring a Global Supply

In the rare earth industry, China’s dominance has been no accident. Years of research and industrial policy helped the nation develop a superior position in the market, and now the country has the ability to control production and the global availability of these valuable metals.

This tight control of the supply of these important metals has the world searching for their own supplies. With the start of mining operations in other countries, China’s share of global production has fallen from 92% in 2010 to 58%< in 2020. However, China has a strong foothold in the supply chain and produced 85% of the world’s refined rare earths in 2020.

China awards production quotas to only six state-run companies:

  • China Minmetals Rare Earth Co
  • Chinalco Rare Earth & Metals Co
  • Guangdong Rising Nonferrous
  • China Northern Rare Earth Group
  • China Southern Rare Earth Group
  • Xiamen Tungsten

As the demand for REEs increases, the world will need tap these reserves. This graphic could provide clues as to the next source of rare earth elements.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx



6). “The REAL reason why Trump is attacking Latin America”, Oct 25, 2025, Ben Norton discusses the moves of the U.S. Ruling class, as embodied in the Donald Trump regime, Geopolitical Economy Report, duration of video 36:42, at < https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcWH-LPyTow&t=2s >.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Chas Freeman: Imperial Overstretch - 500 Years of Dominance Come to an End

Ambassador Chas Freeman discusses the current historical time we live through, as the foundations for 500 years of dominance come to an end. Ambassador Freeman was a former Assistant Secretary of Defense, earning the highest public service awards of the Department of Defense for his roles in designing a NATO-centered post-Cold War European security system and in reestablishing defense and military relations with China. He served as U. S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia (during operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm). He was Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs during the historic U.S. mediation of Namibian independence from South Africa and Cuban troop withdrawal from Angola.

TRANSCRIPT


Hi, everyone, and welcome back to the program. We are joined today by Chas Freeman, a retired diplomat, former ambassador to Saudi Arabia, and also the former assistant secretary of defense. So thank you for coming back on the program.
Glad to be back with you, Glenn.
So I recently, well, actually this morning, was reading through the old book of Paul Kennedy on the rise and fall of great powers from 1987. And I picked up some interesting indicators of what one should expect to see in a falling great power, which is yeah the decline of industrial productivity innovation and trade advantage and
declining infrastructure too many wars military bases alliances ballooning military budgets other great powers catching up in terms of economic power and technologically um Political leadership beginning to refuse that the world has changed, cannot therefore adapt. Decision making becomes increasingly short term, lacking in long term strategy and institutional and cultural decline.
It's it does feel like at some level this is the. the problem of our era so ed do you see this in a similar way are this do you see the indicators for uh fall of the i guess uh u.s and the political west as great
powers yes i think that's a very good description actually of where we are um several transitions going on um uh the five century long Global dominance of the West is past. The West no longer has moral authority. It does not even have unity. And the values that it once expressed, it now ignores or repudiates.
those failures have taken root outside the West. And so I think that's the first transition within the West, every country. but especially my own is in some disarray with belittling national debt, fractious politics, polarization of the political scene, leadership that is regarded by much of the population as both illegitimate and indifferent to popular opinion.
You can look at France, if you will. and see all these symptoms, but you can also see them in the United States where they're aggravated by the election of a very peculiar person as president. someone who is very inconstant and who has temper tantrums. He just ended trade talks with Canada because the governor of Ontario rebroadcast a
Ronald Reagan speech which condemns tariffs as deleterious to the working class in the United States. So, I mean, apparently no dissent is to be tolerated even from foreign countries or neighbors. Of course, Canada is supposedly in line to become the 51st state, according to the president, but no one else. So... Yes,
that's a very good description of the descent into relative chaos and loss of traction on the policy front.
You mentioned the past five centuries of competitive advantage or source of dominance for the West coming to an end. How do you see this? In what framework do you see this major shift?
Well, it was five centuries ago that Columbus opened the Americas to European and African settlement. And the West went on from that to dominate the world. There's a famous map of... which shows 19 small blank spots on the world stage, which Great Britain did not invade. Everywhere else it invaded, and if you weren't invaded by the British,
you were invaded by the French or the Germans or the Japanese or someone else. That's all gone. That is to say, the institutions that the West created after World War II, the United Nations, a great body of international law, are all behind us. They're not respected anymore by the West. Ironically, they've been taken up by others.
The centerpiece of Chinese foreign policy is the effort to restore international law and fidelity to the United Nations Charter. Very ironic given the way in which the modern Chinese state was born in a repudiation of international law and in a framework totally outside the post-World War II American-led order
So we have an odd situation where the United States is now trying to tear down the order it created. And those countries like China that have benefited most from that order and from the rules set by powerful capitalist states are trying to restore that order or keep it alive anyway.
So you see an effort to keep the World Trade Organization going. If you can't resurrect it directly, then adopt regional arrangements that incorporate its rules and dispute resolution mechanisms into a new regional order. And finally, I guess we're seeing a collapse of any hegemony. I prefer to call this a multinodal order. I mean,
nodal meaning junctions that can accommodate many relationships as opposed to poles, which are the two-dimensional end of a line. But at any rate, whatever is coming, it is not a unipolar moment anymore. It's not a bipolar moment either, like the Cold War. And it's very notable that although China is now the major economic factor on the
planet and in many ways the most influential state, replacing the United States, it has no appetite to take up the sort of leadership, hegemonic role that the United States for long played. So there's a leadership vacuum in the world. We see this with disagreements about fundamental issues like climate change, nonproliferation,
efforts to manage risk management through arms control, for example. And of course, the breakdown of the rules of international trade that were carefully worked out. And oddly enough, we have, as the sort of crowning touch in the decay, the United States embracing Argentina, which has defaulted nine times on its sovereign debt and is probably the worst.
If you go to law school and take a course in international transactions, A great deal of the course is about Argentine misbehavior. And there's no indication we're going to have an election on Sunday in Argentina to replace about half of the legislature. It's a referendum on Mr. Millet, the president, and his rather strange economic theories.
It's also a referendum on Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Besant. who've decided to prop up Argentina, something that, as I say, history suggests is not a secure investment. So lots of things are happening, economically, politically, whatever. The worst abuses are occurring in West Asia, where we've had a genocide supported by the United States and other Western countries.
We've not just... enabled it, we've actually supported it, financed it, equipped it. And now we have a ceasefire, which is nothing more than a ceasefire. It is not a piece to talk about.
So I guess to circle back or to frame this in the options which were outlined by, again, Paul Kennedy, was he argued that towards the fall of the great power, one was faced with a dilemma. That is, one could either pursue strategic retreat to preserve some of the prosperity and advantage by simply essentially scaling back.
The alternative would be to cling on to hegemony and face, well, total collapse. I must admit, I was initially had a bit of a soft spot for Trump's notion of America first, because, you know, through my lens, I interpret it to some extent as a strategic retreat. So, yeah, like many others.
But it appears that he hasn't really... followed that path. Instead, he seems quite determined to rebuild empire by simply showing more strength, as if that was the missing recipe for perpetual dominance. But I guess, first of all, do you see it the same way?
And also, do you interpret what's happening now as, I guess, clinging on to hegemony? Or perhaps you don't see it through this lens?
No, I think there's an influential group in the United States who go by the label Restrainers. And they're probably most ably represented by the Quincy Institute in Washington. But they represented an effort to conduct a strategic retreat. saving what could be saved of the vanishing world order.
I don't think Trump appealed to some of them because he's all over the place. He has no fixed principles. Everything is about himself. The most recent indication of that, if you had any doubt, is his proposal to build an an arc of triumph similar to the one in Paris in Washington.
And when asked what the triumph was about, he said, me, it's about me. Well, everything is apparently about him. So I don't think there's much use trying to analyze his strategic vision because there really isn't one. And that, of course, is aggravating the decline that you, or rather Kennedy so ably described.
So I think that's, you know, that's it. And of course, the other thing is we have Steve Bannon now arguing with The Economist in an interview that Trump should be able to finesse the 22nd Amendment and be re-elected in 2028 for a third term. And we need him because he is a divine instrument.
God has brought him here, according to Steve Bannon. to straighten out everything. And he needs, and we need more time with him for him to do that. But that is a rather peculiar description of what is going on. What is going on is symbolized for many Americans by the destruction of the East
Wing of the White House and its proposed replacement with a garish, huge ballroom of some sort, costing 300 million dollars. Well, there goes a part of American history. And it is, in a sense, symbolic of what is happening. We are departing from our constitutional principles, the rule of law, our own history as a nation of immigrants.
We're repudiating the idea of diversity. We're falling back on... a citadel of white power, which is mostly an imaginary past, not something real, and disuniting. And all of this in a context where there are major wars going on and some actually happening and some in prospect. You have to ask yourself the question, are we fit for it?
another war, let's say a war with China. Do we have the unity? Do we have the strength of purpose? Do we have the national agreement on principles that would be required to prevail in such a war? And I suspect the answer is no.
i think that's how um well emmanuel todd he the french philosopher he wrote something he used the concept i think it was micro militarism that when a great power is in decline it will seek i guess long-hanging fruits or or simple victories so using for example seeking out small military victories or
renovating the ballroom, something to signal the restoration of greatness during the decline. I guess the similar recent development, the attacks on the Venezuelan boats of its coastline and threats of bombing it, falls within this, or even bullying the Canadians, of all people, kind of falls within this category.
desperate show of strength but but there is a bit of an interesting contradiction though that is that after the 20th century that is in the first half the the fight against fascism the second half the fight against communism and then by 89 the cold
war is over two years later the soviet union collapse this is really when the political west seems to be at the peak of its power but But all the conditions were right for peace back then, yet somehow, if you look at that vision we had in the early 90s, that of perpetual peace and transcending history,
and where we ended up now, instead this perpetual hostilities towards all corners of the world, perpetual war. How do you explain this transition? Because it was the best time essentially for peace, but this is really when the political West, not just the US, but the Europeans as well, seem to now be
more gung-ho on war than ever before um at least speaking from where i saw my own country was during the cold war we were restrained we're seeking peaceful means for peaceful ends we're cautious not to provoke adversaries After the Cold War, it switched. Suddenly, peace was to be delivered through military force.
And again, we stopped talking about the security concern of opponents. How do you explain this strange shift when, again, we were expecting generations of peace effectively?
Well, a great deal of it, I mean, I don't think there's any single explanation for this trend, but a great deal of it has to do with the misinterpretation of the end of the Cold War, that it was somehow, that the Soviet Union was defeated militarily somehow.
Then the lesson of the Cold War was that military deterrence is the key to peace. rather than diplomacy, disengagement, ostracism work, apparently, though this is the idea. Second, after the end of the Cold War of the United States, emerged in what was called the unipolar moment. We really were all powerful. There was no competitor.
And because we could do anything we wanted, we did. And in effect, we decided that foreign relations were discretionary rather than required, that you could have foreign policy or not. It didn't really matter, and you didn't need diplomacy because we were so strong we could coerce anybody into doing anything we wanted them to do.
Now, this is the theory. It hasn't worked out. And in fact, where this fallacious theory has been applied, for example, to North Korea with maximum pressure as a policy, no diplomacy at all, I mean, Donald Trump made a rather pathetic effort to emulate Richard Nixon's opening to China by reaching out to Kim Jong-un.
But all that produced was photo opportunities and a pageant or two and no movement, no real diplomacy. So what that maximum pressure produced was a North Korean ICBM with a nuclear warhead. capable of hitting the United States. Same process is going on with Iran, although to date, religious scruples have apparently prevented the Iranian supreme leader from
agreeing with many of his subordinates who argue that the example of North Korea shows that the only way to be safe is to develop a nuclear capability to strike the United States or Israel, as the case might be. So a lot of things went into this. In the United States,
the sense that foreign policy was a disposable activity led to the enfranchisement of various special interest groups. so that everybody dealing with Middle East was a Zionist, everybody dealing with Norway was in the Save the Whales crowd, everybody dealing with Haiti was Black, like Haitians, and so forth and so on. And complex societies like China
had multiple special interests, religious freedom fighters, boutique Buddhists, one group after another, human rights advocates, capitalists, anti-communists, and so forth. A great agglomeration of different special interests, and therefore there was no policy. worthy of the name, no policy worthy of the name toward any of the countries I mentioned, including your own.
There is more to Norway, I believe, than whale hunting. But anyway, so basically incoherence became the name of the game, and we're paying a price for that. You know, the final irony or the result of all this is evident in President Trump's continued misunderstanding of peace as opposed to ceasefire.
He thinks ceasefire and peace are the same thing. But a ceasefire is just a halt in fighting. And a peace is a resolution of the underlying issues that cause the fighting. And he seems to be unwilling to address the causes of the fighting, whether they're in Israel-Palestine or in Ukraine and Europe, European security affairs,
or in relation to Iran or China. So he talks about short-term ceasefires, which always break down, and the one in the Middle East has already been seriously violated by Israel, and it's clearly not going to last. So we have a combination of incoherence and ineptitude at play.
Well, it's worth addressing both of those ceasefires. And I think you're very correct in this, because it seems that this maximum pressure to impose a ceasefire or a desirable outcome, it fails to address the security computation and the uh the actual as i said underlying causes which fueled the conflict to begin with
but given that you're the former u.s ambassador to saudi arabia and you know this is your part of the world uh how would you how would you assess the situation now in the middle east i mean after as a consequence of america's decline a country like israel which is i don't want to
demean it but it's almost like a settler outpost to what extent can israel exist or survive without the united states given how much funding both monetary as well as military equipment the U.S. provides to Israel. Of course, you can put in political support as well.
Israel cannot survive without American support, although Prime Minister Netanyahu claims that it can become a sort of Sparta. We all remember what happened to Sparta. It did not die gracefully. So that is not a good vision. And what Israel has done is costing it the support of the United States.
It takes a while to counter entrenched Zionist influence, but it is being countered, even if it continues to control the political elite in Washington and to occupy the White House. So Israel is in grave jeopardy. It has had 80 years to make a friend in the Middle East, and it has made none.
It has made an enemy of everyone. And it now proposes to impose a version of the League of Nations mandate that created it on Gaza, which is utterly unacceptable to the entire world beyond the United States and Israel. So, it is losing its support in Europe, not that Europe is very present in the region these days.
Europe seems to be so divided and so focused on an alleged Russian threat that it is not active where it once was. And so, we have the reawakening of Turkey as a Middle Eastern or West Asian power. President Erdogan just did a circuit of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries
ending in Oman and very correctly said that for the so-called ceasefire that has been arranged in Gaza to be perpetuated, Israel will have to be cut off from weapons support from the United States and political support. Your country, I believe, has sponsored a resolution in the United Nations calling on Israel to return to
respect for international law and the UN charter and implement the agreements that it has made. In the meantime, the international legal apparatus, the International Court of Justice, has deepened its condemnation of Israel's blocking of humanitarian aid. to Gaza, which it is continuing to do in violation of the alleged agreement that Mr. Trump is so proud of.
And we have a series of American senior officials, including the vice president, going to Israel to engage in what is called babysitting. That is watching Bibi Netanyahu carefully because no one trusts him, not his own people, not Americans, not anyone. And so this is not a pretty picture. Elsewhere in the region,
We're seeing a slow rapprochement continue between the Gulf Arabs and Iran. The Lebanese have not disarmed Hezbollah and will not, despite the demand of the United States and Israel that they do that. Syria remains seriously divided. And we're now told, perhaps as part of an argument for a continued American military presence in Syria,
that the Islamic State is being reborn. in the anarchy of contemporary Syria with attacks on the Kurds, the so-called Syrian Democratic Forces having taken place. I'm not sure whether this is, as I say, whether this is a reality or some effort to re-engage the United States, which is slowly disengaging from Syria. The other great powers, Russia,
Russia at the moment is of course obsessed with NATO enlargement, Ukraine, European security issues, but it is increasingly active diplomatically. In West Asia, the Chinese are very active, although they are not going to provide a security substitute for the United States. They're too smart. And the countries in the region, although they're distancing themselves from American protection,
realize there's no alternative to it, so they can only go so far. This is why you see an effort being made by Saudi Arabia to hold on to the essence of the but very real American security commitment to the kingdom that was agreed between the founder of this kingdom, Abdelaziz Al Saud,
and Franklin Delano Roosevelt at the end of World War II. An executive agreement of some sort, which of course has no constitutional standing at all in the United States, no efficacy. but it does represent a hedge as Saudi Arabia repositions itself as an independent actor.
So lots of things in motion, all reflecting American retreat decline, if you will. And... the greater assertiveness by middle ranking powers and efforts by smaller countries to get together to replace or rebuild those parts of the Pax Americana without the United States that they can. There's a very interesting constellation that's emerged in Southeast Asia. between Singapore,
New Zealand, and a couple of other small countries trying to work out rules of trade and investment that would sustain the WTO practices even without the WTO, which the United States has sabotaged. So, you know, I mean, we're clearly in a period of transition away from
any hegemony, as I said, and toward a much more divided, much more diverse, multinodal order.
Well, in this multinodal order, what do you see in the cards for Europe? Well, I guess Europe can exist without the United States. But nonetheless, the Europeans been living under US protections, very tight protection since the Second World War, creating really extreme economic and security dependence.
willing or unwilling the u.s will still need a strategic retreat in some areas and europe seems to be a top candidate for reducing the focus which might be easier or more the more interest at least to do this as europe declines in not just in terms
of economic power but also political relevance but do you do you see the europeans turning on each other or being able to remain cohesive in some way, or in general, the European security architecture, how do you see it developing, I guess, in the post-American world order?
Well, there's no agreement at all between Europeans about what should be done, and there's no agreed vision for a European relationship with Russia. In fact, rather than discussing the obvious requirement to have some sort of guarantee of a cooperative relationship with Russia and keep Russia from having designs on Europe. outside its own borders.
People are jumping up and down as though they're following the advice of, you know, when in trouble, when in doubt, jump around and walk about. You know, there's no coherence to this. This can't last. You said Europe has economic, political security. on the United States, it also has an intellectual dependency. It has no vision.
There's nobody in Europe who's putting forward a coherent view of the Europe of the future in its relationship with not just the Russian Europeans, but to Eurasia as a whole or to the globe. So Europe is a mystery in terms of... It's an enigma. It is not cohering as it should.
Europe has all of the characteristics of a superpower except coherence and leadership and vision. And I think it's a great shame, by the way, that... the meeting in Budapest between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin is not taking place. Because one of the few Europeans who does seem to have a vision of, maybe the wrong one,
but at least a vision of European security, is Viktor Orban. And he seems to recognize, along with a few others, the necessity to craft a sustainable relationship with the Russians, with the Chinese. And Hungary may have its problems, and certainly it is not an example of a liberal democracy,
but it does seem to have a pretty clear vision of its own place in the world. And that seems to be anathema to other Europeans other than Robert Pizzo in Slovakia and now Babish, I guess, in Czechia. So, I mean, You see this with something like the European effort to confiscate funds from the
Russians to indemnify Ukraine for its damage, where the Hungarians abstained. Everyone else apparently voted in favor. What's the point of that? What does that do other than continue the fighting to the last Ukrainian? At some point, the last Ukrainian will die. What then? Nobody's talking about it.
How do you deal with the prospect of a Russian victory in Ukraine? Nobody's talking about it. And yet that is the most plausible outcome of this war.
Yeah, say what one will about Orban, but at least when he comes with a vision, for example, balancing off the liberal ideals with traditional values or improving relations with the US, but also looking to the East all the way to China for diversifying economic cooperation.
I mean, if one doesn't agree with it, one can counter it with other ideas. But as you said, The Europeans seem to have driven themselves into a ditch, but they just reject any dissent. So there's no, I guess, intellectual engagement with people like Orbán. But just my last question is more specific, I guess.
How do you make sense of Trump's last... sanctions now against well it's against Russia but it's secondary sanctions so it's essentially sanctions against the world it seems to primarily target the Russian oil trade with China and India but again even the Germans have to go and ask for
exemptions now because of some Russian subsidiaries and you know processing their oil on German territory so how how do you make sense of what Trump is doing you
can't make sense of it because it makes no sense First of all, it's going to fail. There will be workarounds developed by the Indians and the Chinese, who are the two major purchasers of Russian oil. And the exact nature of those workarounds has yet to be determined.
There is a temporary suspension of imports from Russia by the major refiners in China and India. But that won't last. Interestingly, this effort to cut off Russian dependence on Russian energy appears to have been accompanied by sabotage in a number of European countries of facilities processing Russian oil.
I think Bulgaria, Romania stand out, but this smacks of Nord Stream 2 again. This is an example of self-mutilation. What is Europe's future if it has no access to cheap energy? Question. The Germans are finding out what the loss of cheap energy means for their economy.
I suppose this is all very good for Norway as an oil producer. But it's a sad development because an open trading system is how Europe became great. And it's now turning its back on it. So, in its own way, it is not doing anything quite as extreme as the Trump administration is doing with the United States. But...
Europe doesn't have a coherent position on any of the major issues of the day. global balance, global trade, investment, relations with China as now the dominant economic force on the planet, relations with Russia. What is the Turkish relationship to the rest of Europe? Nobody seems to know. Is Europe going to sustain its... colonial enterprise in Palestine.
I mean, we have, you know, oddly enough, Zionism, which bears very little resemblance to Judaism, was a Christian idea originally. It wasn't invented by Jews. It was a Protestant idea, and it was connected to the desire to rid Europe of its Jewish population by sending them to their mythical homeland. in Palestine.
It then became, you know, I've described it as a monster in Jewish clothing. It certainly bears no resemblance to the humane religion that I know in the United States among Jews. And Israel is losing the support of the Jewish population beyond it. precisely for this reason.
They don't want to be associated with something that really bears the same relationship to Judaism as the Islamic State bears to Islam. It is a deviant perversion. So this is another thing that is happening. And again, Europe has no answer for this. Germany is still engaged in repressing any criticism of Israel. out of guilt over the Holocaust,
and it's thereby aiding and abetting another Holocaust, which isn't over, notwithstanding the so-called ceasefire. So, you can wring your hands, but we really should do better than that.
We're living in this truly historical times when... the global hegemon has come to an end and everyone has to adjust to a multipolar or a multimodal world uh finding our own place in this uh recognizing the incentives limitations there's a lot to reflect on and uh and things of important importance which has to be considered yet uh
as you said there might be that the intellectual deficit i think because at the moment at least in europe the only focus is on um wondering whether russia is going to restore the soviet empire or march on paris i mean it's very It's very absurd to hear the kind of rhetoric and arguments being made, very,
very much divorced from the massive changes the world is undergoing. Anyways, I very much appreciate you taking the time. And as always, thank you.
Well, you seem to like gloom and doom. At least it's justified these days.
well yeah well ironically my main focus is on this greater eurasian initiative of china india russia ideally europe would be included in cooperating with the us as well and it's it's a very optimistic initiative you know the europeans could connect across the greater eurasian continent connect with russian energy chinese
technology go from you know hegemonic system to something a bit more balanced with the based on sovereign equality so actually My point of departure was actually quite optimistic, but these days there's not much optimism left, I guess.
In that connection, Glenn, let me recommend to you an essay by Kaiser Kuo, Kuo spelled K-U-O, Kaiser, K-A-I-S-E-R, called What the West Can Learn from China. His basic point is the period of Chinese learning from the West is over. China's now independent and forging the head, not copying anyone.
And it's doing a lot of things that we need to look at if we're going to find answers to our own dilemmas. So I recommend that. It's a very intellectually stimulating thing. essay right in your Asian focus basket.
I heard something similar from the Russian leadership, that we've learned everything we can now from the West, it's time to look East. I'm not sure everything is a lot, but the fact that sentiment is there is interesting.
Well, it means a world in which the West is no longer leading, which is where we started this discussion. And the West needs to find a new path to serve its own interests and those of the rest of the world. And we haven't, we're not even trying at this point.
On that happy note, thank you again for having me aboard.
Thank you.

No comments:

Post a Comment