1). “Donald Trump is at War with America: He sees himself as a wartime president”, Jan 21, 2025, Jonathan V. Last, The Bulwark, at < https://substack.com/home/
2). “Mike Johnson Implies Conditions For California Wildfire Aid Is A 'Common Sense Notion' ”, Jan 19, 2025, Taiyler S. Mitchell, HuffPost, at < https://www.yahoo.com/news/
3). “2 GOP Senators From Storm-Ravaged States Oppose Conditioning California Wildfire Aid: Republican lawmakers from states that have been devastated by natural disasters don't exactly love the idea of withholding aid to California”, Jan 13, 2024, Igor Bobic, HuffPost, at < https://www.huffpost.com/
~~ recommended by dmorista ~~
Introduction by dmorista: Trump narrowly “won” the election through the wide-spread use of time-tested Republican Operations that purge, suppress, and don't count the votes of around 5 million people. Those operations often work eking out squeaker wins when the “low-propensity voters” (who numbered about 17 million for the 2024 election) stay home. The “low-propensity voters” break about 60 – 40 or 65 – 35 Democratic. They came out and voted for Obama and Biden and swamped the 4-5 million voters that various Republican efforts target. There was clearly some shift towards Republicans, but the fact that the Democratic Party was unable to motivate the Couch potatoes is the real reason Trump won.
Just like Hitler and the Nazis the Trumpenvolk leadership knows they are far from a majority. They are making resolute moves to consolidate power and remove their opponents. As Item 1)., “Donald Trump is at War ….”, notes:
“I don’t think there’s any way to read yesterday except as President Trump deciding that with the Republican party fully subservient to him, he can subjugate the other remaining power centers in American life.
“He can finally be a wartime president. It’s just that he’s going to war against America. ….
“Mob Rule. Trump set in motion the process to free 1,600 people charged with crimes in his attempted coup. Among them was Enrique Tarrio, the leader of the Proud Boys, who had been sentenced to 22 years in prison after being convicted of seditious conspiracy.
“The point of these pardons, clemencies, and commutations is to recreate the street armies on which Trump leaned in his first term. (Emphasis added)
“You may have forgotten, but public violence was one of the hallmarks of the Trump years. Paramilitary organization like the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers frequently marched in American cities, engaging in violence and intimidation.” (Emphasis added)
Trump's regime will concentrate their efforts of unpopular or negative operations like raiding workplaces, clinics, and schools to arrest undocumented immigrants in large “Blue State Cities” like Chicago, Low Angeles, and New York. Another issue that arises is that the Trump Regime will do all it can to starve Blue States, and Blue Cities in Red States (there are a lot of those btw) of the resources needed to maintain a modern society. The biggest need for resources now is the dire situation in the aftermath of the major fires in Southern California. Item 2)., “Mike Johnson Implies ….”, discusses the threats and rhetoric coming out of right-wing Republicans to deny aid to California unless the State Government makes political concessions to Trump and his coterie. That is a tactic that some Republicans from the more disaster prone Red States realize will cause them real problems. Item 3)., “2 GOP Senators ….”, notes that Republican Senators from Florida and North Carolina have discussed the fact that this would not be a good idea.
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Donald Trump Is at War with America
1. There Is Only War
There is a way in which you can view Trump’s first term as a mostly intramural kampf.
Trump took office in 2017 without the support of much of the institutional Republican party,1 but came to Washington hoping to become the same lovable host he’d been on TV. Instead, his most substantial opposition came from inside the GOP—people like Jeff Flake, John McCain, and Mitt Romney. (And also Jim Mattis, John Kelly, and Rex Tillerson.)
Over the course of his administration, Trump discovered that this faction might superficially support him, but was fundamentally opposed to him. So he engaged in a power struggle with them for control of the party. Trump ultimately triumphed, but the energy required for this fight precluded him from doing much governing. There simply wasn’t time to both purge the GOP and pass legislation.
Also, Trump discovered that there were two other spheres in which structures prevented a president from acting as emperor. The first was the federal government, in which conscientious political appointees could thwart his will and civil service bureaucrats held their own power. The second was the broader culture, in which business leaders, internet platforms, and media organizations held some sway over public opinion.
But he didn’t have time to wage war on these fronts, either.
I don’t think there’s any way to read yesterday except as President Trump deciding that with the Republican party fully subservient to him, he can subjugate the other remaining power centers in American life.
He can finally be a wartime president. It’s just that he’s going to war against America.
For a moment, put aside Elon Musk’s Nazi salute, the removal of Mark Milley’s portrait from the Pentagon, and the “Gulf of America.” Look at where the power is.
The Courts. For the next two years, the judicial branch is the only institution with the power to check Trump. That’s why he issued an executive order to end birthright citizenship.
There is no question that this order is unconstitutional. The only issue is whether or not there will be five votes on the Supreme Court to risk a showdown with Trump over enforcement of a verdict.
Trump understands that at some point he is likely to come into open conflict with the Supreme Court. Ending birthright citizenship is a probing action designed to test the Court’s nerve. Will five justices be willing to rule against him on an open-and-shut case? Or will John Roberts and Amy Coney Barrett be worried that Trump might defy a contrary ruling, exposing the Court as toothless—and so decide to go along with him now in order to reserve the right to oppose him later?
The Bureaucracy. Trump issued a renamed “Schedule F” order, allowing him to fire civil service workers and replace them with partisan appointees. This is a direct attack on the federal bureaucracy.
The administration also issued a “return to work” order yesterday. The order’s scope is ambiguous,2 but its purpose is clear: To terminate existing federal employees in order to replace them with political loyalists. Think of this as a companion to Schedule F helping to speed up the replacement process by creating another pretext for firing existing civil servants.
Mob Rule. Trump set in motion the process to free 1,600 people charged with crimes in his attempted coup. Among them was Enrique Tarrio, the leader of the Proud Boys, who had been sentenced to 22 years in prison after being convicted of seditious conspiracy.
The point of these pardons, clemencies, and commutations is to recreate the street armies on which Trump leaned in his first term.
You may have forgotten, but public violence was one of the hallmarks of the Trump years. Paramilitary organization like the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers frequently marched in American cities, engaging in violence and intimidation.
But as the convictions from the January 6th insurrection piled up, many of these groups receded. Trump’s entire 2024 campaign took place under a notable absence of open paramilitary support.
Yesterday, the Proud Boys marched in the nation’s capital for the first time since the insurrection. A few hours later, their leader, Tarrio, was set free.
The message is unambiguous: Trump wants supporters who engage in street violence on the loose. He wants a paramilitary arm for which he has plausible deniability. They are his irregular forces; his Little Green Men.
Freeing those convicted of violence is a go-ahead signal for future violent acts and an implicit promise that Trump will take care of those who fight on his behalf.
Blue States. We have reports that Trump’s deportation raids are slated to target Chicago, Boston, and New York—Democratic cities in Democratic states.
The inherent tension in Trump’s deportation regime is that if he followed through on his promises and deported several million immigrants, he would hobble the national economy. To take just one example: A red state like Texas would experience huge problems in the construction industry, which relies heavily on immigrant labor. Either housing construction in Texas would slow—raising housing prices. Or construction wages would climb—also raising housing prices.
But there is a way for Trump to have his cake and eat it too: If he targets immigrants in blue states, he can create a drag on local, blue-state economies while satisfying the anti-immigrant desires of red-state voters.
It’s a twofer. Trump can hurt businesses and make life more expensive for consumers in New York and Illinois—and then attack blue state mayors and governors for these problems and maybe even help Republican candidates win in those states. Meanwhile, Fox will run B-roll from the raids on a loop, satisfying Trump voters in Texas and Arizona—whose economies will continue to benefit from immigrant workers.
Trump understands that blue states are the last bastions of meaningful popular opposition to his rule, so he will use the federal government to subdue them. That’s what deportations—and tariffs—are for. These are executive powers which can be used in highly-targeted ways to hurt on local economies.
If you live in a blue state, President Trump is going to use the power of the federal government to make your life harder. And if you think that sounds paranoid, here’s Speaker Mike Johnson explaining that he intends to use federal disaster aid to extract concessions from the state of California.
Trump sees himself as being at war with half of America. This is unprecedented.3
And 24 hours in he is governing not for all Americans—and not even just for the benefit of “his” voters—but as an attack on the half of America that opposed him. I hope we can all be clear-eyed about this. Because being clear-eyed is about all we can do for the moment.
2. The Volk
There’s some other stuff mixed in here which gets at the Trump administration’s views of who counts as “real” Americans. You can read the birthright citizenship ban in this light, too: Only Americans who are born to Americans are authentically American.
And even some of them aren’t real Americans, either. That’s why Trump is getting set to kick several thousand trans people out of the military. Think about that: The military is dealing with an HR shortage and Trump is going to discharge something like 15,000 service members who are currently serving their country honorably. Because they’re not the right type of Americans.4
Then there’s his cancellation of the resettlement of Afghan refugees. These are people who fought alongside America, who have gone through all of the legal processes and done everything “the right way.” But the Trump administration doesn’t want them to become Americans, either.
What you have here is a highly conditional view of what makes a person part of the true American Volk.
It is interesting to note that Trump does not appear to view the Democratic party as one of his enemies.
Perhaps that’s why Chuck Schumer and John Fetterman are so unperturbed. Trump seems to regard congressional Democrats as NPCs—inconsequential figures who are not worth wasting energy on. It’s the Democratic voters he wants to crush.
It is also interesting that Trump’s approach is the mirror image of that taken by Biden Democrats.
Joe Biden took office in the wake of an attempted coup, during which Trump supporters attacked the Capitol and many Republican officeholders at the national and state levels attempted to reverse the outcome of the election.
And yet, he saw himself as a peacetime president. His response to the violence of the Trump years was an attempt to win the support of Trump’s voters by shoveling money into their districts to build infrastructure and create jobs.5
It did not work.
To take just one example among many, Jonathan Chait notes that Lordstown, Ohio, saw the closure of its GM plant in 2019 under Trump. Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act brought a massive new factory to Lordstown, along with 2,200 new jobs. The result: Trump gained voteshare in Lordstown in 2024.
And even in the midst of this failure, the Democratic response has been to embark on more soul-searching as to how they might please Trump voters in order to woo them.6
To the extent that Biden Democrats villainized anyone, it was MAGA Republican officeholders, whom they attempted to distinguish as a separate class from normal elected Republicans. Biden Democrats viewed these “normal” elected Republicans as governing partners and Republican voters as friends they just hadn’t met yet.
Donald Trump’s theory is the opposite. He sees himself as a wartime president and believes that Democratic voters should not be bargained with or bribed, but intimidated, punished, subdued—and rendered unable to oppose him in his quest for total power.
It’s a novel theory of the presidency. It might even work.
3. Pace
There was no Triad yesterday because I just couldn’t do it—and I want to say a few words about that.
One of the things to keep in mind in the coming months is that there are going to be days when we—all of us—just can’t do it. And that’s okay.
For me, when that happens, it means that I’ll scrub this newsletter. I’m not going to push product to you unless I think it adds value. I will kill a Triad rather than phone it in. This is a thing that is going to happen. I hope you’ll understand.
For you, it means that there will be times when you have to check out of the news—including The Bulwark. You’ll have to hit delete without reading; skip the podcasts; look inward and tend your own garden. And not that you need my blessing or anything, but I am absolutely okay with that. I encourage it, actually.
There is a place between LOL NOTHING MATTERS and Constant Vigilance—and that’s the place where most of us are going to need to live. The authoritarians want us to either get exhausted and melt into the countryside, or become fully nihilistic.
One of the ways to avoid that double-trap is pacing ourselves. Refuse to give up, but be willing to step away to recharge. That’s what I did yesterday and that’s the mode most of us will need to operate in for the foreseeable future.
Hang in there, friends.
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Mike Johnson Implies Conditions For California Wildfire Aid Is A 'Common Sense Notion'
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said he “won’t commit” to providing aid without conditions to the flame-engulfed region of Los Angeles County.
Johnson and other Republicans have been considering leveraging California’s need for aid and relief to advance political agendas as the fires rage on. On Sunday’s episode of “Meet the Press,” host Kristen Welker asked Johnson if he could commit to not binding California disaster relief to conditions, such as increasing the debt limit.
“No, I won’t commit that because we have a serious problem in California,” Johnson said. “Listen, there are natural disasters. I’m from Louisiana, we’re prone to that. We understand how these things work. But then there’s also human error, and when the state and local officials make foolish policy decisions that make the disaster exponentially worse, we need to factor that in, and I think that’s a common sense notion.”
But California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has called for expedited aid with no “strings attached” multiple times.
Newsom and Johnson engaged in a public back-and-forth online earlier this week after Newsom appeared on a podcast again calling for unconditional relief.
“Instead of making highly produced clap back videos with social media influencers, you should get to work helping Californians,” Johnson said. “You’re the leader of a state in crisis, and you should finally start acting like it.”
Newsom responded, “Mr. Speaker, when Louisianans need help after hurricanes, it’s Californians ― many of whom have been impacted by these fires ― who foot the bill to help your constituents. And they do it without playing partisan games. Millions of your supporters are out here, and they need your help, empathy, care and whatever compassion you are willing to express. Do the right thing.”
The Southern California fires have killed at least 27 people and destroyed at least 13,600 structures, according to NBC News on Friday. Newsom said in a previous “Meet The Press” episode that the disaster, which is still ongoing, could be the worst natural disaster in U.S. history.
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2 GOP Senators From Storm-Ravaged States Oppose Conditioning California Wildfire Aid
Republican lawmakers from states that have been ravaged by natural disasters oppose withholding or conditioning federal assistance to California residents impacted by the devastating Los Angeles wildfires.
“I would ask those folks to put themselves in the same position as people of western North Carolina,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said of some conservatives who have suggested putting strings on federal aid to California.
“You got to be consistent on disaster supplement, period. I’m unequivocal ― you fix the problems of those folks out there; we can talk about the problems we’ve created here, here,” he added.
Some Western North Carolina communities were wiped off the map last September after hurricanes Helene and Milton caused catastrophic flooding, causing tens of billions of dollars in damages and leaving more than 200 people dead across several other states. Last month, congressional leaders provided $100 billion for relief for those and other disasters, with no strings attached.
But now that a blue state has suffered a natural disaster, some Republicans have suggested withholding aid until California makes policy changes to its forest and water management, or its diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives.
“There can’t be a blank check on this,” Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) said Sunday on CBS’s “Face The Nation, blaming “the policies of the liberal administration out there.”
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) also told reporters on Monday that there’s some discussion of tying disaster aid to raising the debt limit. Republicans want to raise the debt limit in part to finance an extension of the 2017 GOP tax cuts.
“You can’t go out and get the kind of money that’s necessary in this unless you increase the debt limit,” Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) said Monday.
But Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), a former governor of hurricane-prone Florida, said that Congress should act to provide relief to California wildfire victims without attaching conditions.
“I think we ought to do aid the way we do everybody else,” Scott told HuffPost.
“There are existing requirements. I mean, the money’s just not free...FEMA has rules,” he added of the government disaster relief agency.
Democrats noted that disaster-prone red states such as Florida could face a similar push to condition aid in the future under a Democratic-controlled Congress.
“There are a lot of people, for example, in Florida, running insurance businesses that are not going to be happy about all those strings and odd policies that are being talked about,” Wyden told reporters on Monday.
Meanwhile, Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), a senior appropriator who was instrumental in getting federal disaster aid to Hawaii after last year’s fires in Maui devastated the island, laughed off the threat of conditioning relief.
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