Tuesday, February 7, 2023

The Earthquake in Turkey and Syria: A Class / Capitalism Based Analysis ~~ dmorista

~~ written by dmorista ~~

 


The region of Southern Turkey (that has now officially changed its  name to Türkiye) and Northern Syria was rocked by a massive 7.8 earthquake on the Moment Magnitude Scale (Mw). (This has replaced the better known Richter scale, now considered outdated and less accurate), on Monday Morning at 4:17 AM local time, near the Turkish city of Gaziantep, in the Pazarcik district in the southern province of Kahramanmaras..  A second earthquake measuring 7.5 on the Moment Magnitude Scale (Mw) struck about 10 hours later near the Turkish city of Ekinozu in the Elbistan district of Kahramanmaras province.  The United States Geological Survey (USG) measured the first quake and posted the comment about the massive aftershock that a "Notable quake, preliminary info: M 7.5 - 4 km SSE of Ekinozu, Turkey," 

  

(Source: “Map of Turkey shows where massive 7.8 magnitude earthquake struck”, The Independent, Feb 6, 2023, Stuti Mishra, at < https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/

europe/turkey-earthquake-map-syria-deaths-b2276430.html >)

Turkey's Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) said in a statement that 78 aftershocks occurred following the earthquake. Gaziantep, Sanliurfa, Diyarbakir, Adana, Adiyaman, Malatya, Osmaniye, The 7.5 second major quake is one of those 78 aftershocks.    


The death toll in the two countries has risen above 4,800.  In Syria the situation is complicated by the fact that there is still a Low-Intensity War going on.  Part of the Syrian area is controlled by the Damascus Government and part is controlled by Islamic Insurgents. In both Turkey and Syria the fate of those still alive in the rubble is likely to be grim.  Cold weather with cold rain and snow is forecast to move into that area today.  The World Health Organization has predicted that the death toll might rise to 8 times that recorded so far, or something in the area of 40,000 deaths.


One thing becomes very obvious when we look at photos of the damage to buildings in the cities and towns of Turkey in the aftermath.  Some buildings appear to be virtually undamaged while others are piles of rubble as is starkly demonstrated in this photo.   

(Source: “Map of Turkey shows where massive 7.8 magnitude earthquake struck”, The Independent, Feb 6, 2023, Stuti Mishra, at < https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/

europe/turkey-earthquake-map-syria-deaths-b2276430.html >)


Turkey and other places in the Eastern Mediterranean are in one of the world’s most active seismic zones.  But we might note that Japan and California and Chile in South America are also in very active seismic zones, where powerful earthquakes occur.  But the quality of the buildings in California and Japan is far higher than much of what gets built in Turkey and other Eastern Mediterranean places.  Chile occupies a middle ground, the quality of the construction is higher than that in Turkey and Syria, but less than those in Japan.  Repeated massive Earthquakes in Japan and California have shown a variety of problems with the buildings in those places.  To some degree those problems have been addressed, but not entirely.  Who can forget the photos of the collapsed freeway located in the East Bay region of the San Francisco area that pancaked killing dozens of people in their cars.  In Japan the earthquake that damaged the Fukushima nuclear power station has to rate as one of the worst environmental debacles in human history and its ramifications are still continuing with releases of highly radioactive water into the Pacific Ocean there.  In the case of Fukushima the reactors had their backup Electrical generation capacity located in the basements and the wall to prevent tsunami waves was not as high as previously measured tsunamis in the region, the arrangements were so slack that the diesel generators did not even have snorkels.  Snorkels would have made the operation of those back-up generators, even when they were immersed in the flood waters, possible (the U.S. still has around 20 of that model of reactor producing electricity).  


The fact is that Turkey suffers from a relatively large number of earthquakes, the most significant recent one occurred about 25 years ago in 1999 and killed over 17,000 people.  It was the: “Izmit Earthquake (1999) - On August 17 1999, the Turkish city of Izmit located in the southeast of Istanbul witnessed a devastating earthquake of 7.6 magnitude. According to TRT World, the earthquake left more than 17,118 dead, and 50,000 injured. Over 500,000 people also lost their homes as poor construction was considered the main cause of such devastation.”  After the Izmit Earthquake the Turkish Legislature passed laws that required new construction to be more earthquake resistant and also required existing deficient building be reinforced with steel beams and girders.  Unfortunately Turkey is the sort of society where wealthy construction oligarchs easily bribe government construction inspectors, to turn a blind eye to obvious violations of these well-meaning, but ineffectual, laws.  (See, “Turkey Earthquake: A Quick Look At 5 Devastating Quakes That Wreaked Havoc In The Nation”, Feb 6, 2023, Bhagyasree Sengupta, Republic, at                                                                                                        <https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/middle-east/turkey-earthquake-a-quick-look-at-5-devastating-quakes-that-wreaked-havoc-in-the-nation-articleshow.html>) 


Turkey is still undergoing urbanization and the move of peasant subsistence farmers from the land in rural areas to the cities.  That creates a major demand for cheap apartments.  Oligarchs profit from providing such apartments, but there is no particular reason for them to construct buildings that are earthquake resistant.  Politicians like Erdogan, and others, who work in the Trumpian style of religiously affiliated or identified demagogues will never address these issues.  The Left needs to lead the working population, of Turkey, Syria, and the Developed countries too, to make basic demands for a better life.  Right-wing demagogues and religious proto-fascists and outright fascists (like Ron DeSantis in fascist controlled Florida) do not offer real solutions.  It is worth noting here that, the original concept for the Deep State was developed by left-leaning academics in Turkey, not by the foaming at the mouth fascists of Trump World or the deluded notcases at QAnon.  What the right has managed to do with great success is to coopt several important ideas from the Left, that were actually based in reality, and convert them into fantasy mobilizing memes for the deluded members of the petite bourgeoisie that make up the bulk of fascist and reactionary cadres.


The solution to this dilemma in Turkey would require a revolutionary demand from the common people for changes that could be enforced on the oligarchs and the real estate developers and construction magnates.  Erdogan is a right-wind demagogue masquerading as a theocratic populist.  He has a variety of relationships with the rich and protects their interests, and uses the power of the Turkish State to oppress and murder the Kurds and the secular opposition.  The result is the construction of flashy mosques and the conversion of Hagia Sophia from a museum to a mosque.  The low power of the right-wing dominated Turkish State makes it a natural place for killing journalists like Kashoggi but not a place where the interests of average people count for much.  After the Izmit Earthquake a few building owners were dragged from their luxurious homes and were killed by enraged mobs of Turkish people.  That did not resolve anything on a permanent level but did show that the working people of Turkey are capable of concerted action.  Maybe there will be a more comprehensive response by the people of Turkey.  Erdogan is up for re-election in a few days.  He was already facing a very close election.  Unfortunately his main opponent, the former Mayor of Istanbul, also has close connections with the oligarchs who own most of the apartments in deficient buildings.


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