https://jackrasmus.com/2022/02/24/my-commentaries-on-ukraine-war-feb-19-24/
~~ posted for dmorista ~~
Introduction by dmorista:
The propaganda and disinformation outlets are working full tilt to bring the American populace to at least tolerate the latest war, and any possible serious counter moves against Russia. One scholar who is truly independent and who is favorably inclined towards the interests of the general populace of the U.S. is economist Jack Rasmus. He posted some comments about what is happening, both before the attack and a couple comments afterwards. It is all posted here, in reverse chronological order with the latest commentary occurring at the top of the article. Rasmus is always worth listening to or reading.
My Commentaries on Ukraine War (Feb. 19-24)
February 24, 2022 by jackrasmus
Following events of this past week, just prior to and following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, my various commentaries on events on Twitter are as follows. Comments on in reverse chronology with most recent (2/24) first. (A more comprehensive analysis article will be posted on this blog this weekend)
Watch closely if US/NATO war hawks’ claim that “Putin’s endgame is not Ukraine but to restore all of E. Europe under Russia again” becomes official line of Biden/NATO. If so, then NATO war faction will escalate with massive men and material moved to NATO eastern border
A key question: at what point might US and NATO consider a cyberattack an ‘act of war’ and activate NATO article 5? Cyberattacks easiest of all ‘false flags’ to pull off and virtually impossible to locate its origins. War hawks in E. Europe or even US could do it
Here’s an important question: should US move to deny SWIFT int’l payments system access to Russia (against current wishes of EU), will Russia be able to bypass SWIFT by moving to sell its resources via digital currencies? (China already trialing its DC)
US Gen. Joulwan, former commander of NATO, on CNN calls for US air force enter Ukraine & protect Kyiv. Then says Putin’s real plan to reconquer all of former Warsaw Pact nations, now part of NATO (incl. Baltics, Poland, etc.) This view represents war wing US pol. forces
US media ideology machine shifting into high gear. 3 themes building in mainstream media: 1. Putin’s Covid isolation means he’s become unstable 2. Putin’s comments show his intention to go after E. Europe next 3. Biden says Putin has “sinister vision FOR THE WORLD”
As I predicted, Russian forces driving NE and NW up from Crimea + South from Kharkhiv + west from Donetsk/Lughansk in great encirclement. Also south from Belarus to encircle Kyiv. Still believe no ‘battle for Kyiv’ to occur; just to depose current Govt
The importance of SWIFT Int’l payments to the economic sanctions list is evident by Ukraine president Zelensky now begging Biden to implement SWIFT sanctions asap.
Biden’s latest sanctions announcements today still excludes SWIFT int’l payments system denial to Russia. Why? Will interfere with energy imports EU needs. Also, may accelerate Russia+China creating alternative payments system outside US dollar regime=weakens $
Fed mortgage rates falling today. Means investors betting Fed doesn’t raise rates as aggressively starting March due to Ukraine war which will mean much higher oil & commodities inflation that will slow US economic recovery now. Fed behind ‘eight ball’ as they say.
West political forces that want more direct conflict between NATO & Russia now saying Russia will attack land corridor from Belarus to Russian Kaliningrad region to cut off Baltics-i.e. Belarus is just Russia & thus need more NATO forces build up in Lithuania and Poland.
Following initial invasion, western markets not all that impressed with sanctions levied thus far. Will US/NATO impose harsher? Will it include sanctions via SWIFT int’l payments system located in Belgium? Last time SWIFT included in sanctions was Iran 2012. My bet: yes
One quick outcome of the conflict in Ukraine is that the US will now move to cut a deal fast with Iran. The biggest worry about Ukraine war: political forces in US & EU panic and may now propose fast track NATO membership to Ukraine. Not likely, but watch that one closely
Will massive US & west sanctions destabilize Russia’s economy? Not yet certain. What is certain: accelerating oil and commodity prices will now stifle US & EU econ recovery. Double dip recessions guaranteed if war lasts more than 2-4 weeks. Forget central bank rate hikes
Russia’s military strategy: encircle Ukraine’s main military forces concentrated in the east, in a pincer movement, from north (Kharkhiv), south (Crimea) and east (provinces). Force Ukraine military back to Kyiv. Encircle Kyiv and capture govt heads. How did we get here, you say? One word: NATO
The attack on Kyiv will be a military diversion; maybe Odessa too. Real objective: take and hold Donetsk, Lughansk, Kharkiv, Zaporiszhia and maybe Kherson provinces in east and south. Freeze Ukrainian forces in central & w. Ukraine in place with threat from Belarus.
It’s extremely unlikely Putin to try to ‘conquer’ and occupy all of Ukraine. That requires forces he doesn’t have. And costs too high. What he wants in hard commitment not to join NATO + maybe new Ukraine govt. US-NATO response: flood west Ukraine with arms and money.
The most likely scenario not a ‘battle for Kyiv’ city, but a Russian targeting Kharkhiv in northeast, Mariupol in southeast, and push further into E. provinces to encircle Ukraine forces & force them to retreat. Putin then halts further advances & waits on new negotiations
Will US/NATO send forces into Ukraine to confront Russians? No. US generals know their ‘Clausewitz’ whose Principles of warfare put US/NATO at disadvantage in direct confrontation. Besides, what US wants most is restore its control over NATO & end Nord2 gas. It gets that
If Americans think inflation is now bad, just wait if Russia invades and global oil, gas, and virtually all commodities prices spike to new levels. Inflation this summer will ravage the US economy, halt its recovery, and make the Fed think twice about 7 more rate hikes
If Russia invades will it drive quickly to Kyiv? I predict will move first along a front from Kharkiv to Mariupol & halt to see what US-Ukraine do. All this could have been avoided if US hadn’t signed agreement with Zelensky last Nov. ’21 to bring Ukraine into EU & NATO
The mainstream US media makes it sound like Germany’s chancellor, Sholtz, has cancelled Nord2 gas pipeline. No. He’s just not signing its final certification for now, needed to get the gas flowing. That’s not a very great ‘concession’ to US demands
Biden speech today warns Americans more inflation coming due to Ukraine crisis & accelerating oil and commodity prices. But he ignores the exempting global oil & commodity corps from sanctions responsible for the inflation & says nothing re. Europe exempting big Russian banks
Commodity prices of all kinds surging, not just oil. Aluminum, iron, food, etc. It will bleed into the US economy next several weeks. Watch April inflation to rise sharply, perhaps even March.
Putin makes clear the only real issue is Ukraine joining NATO. Says if Ukraine just says it won’t join NATO, then all confrontation is over. (But no chance of that since that’s the intent of Ukraine and US, to bring in NATO and surround Russia on several fronts)
It now appears banks will be exempt from Russian sanctions as well as oil & gas. EU announces Russia’s two biggest banks are exempt. Meanwhile, prices for all kinds of commodities (not just oil) are rising fast as global speculators step in and hoard supply contracts
Oil & Energy prices were 40% of last inflation report’s 7.5% CPI. That was when crude oil price was well below $100/bbl. Now it will be well above by next report and even more a contributor to inflation. (Oil corps have made sure there’ll be no US/NATO sanctions on oil
Watch for 500+ point drop in Dow and Nasdaq tuesday. More coming. Then Fed raises rates & more. Then March inflation numbers come in higher & still more. If Fed raises 7 times + Ukraine & inflation continue, classic inverted yield curve (predicts recession)
Putin today declared eastern provinces independent of Ukraine. Biden slaps sanctions on Oligarchs & limits on money & goods flows into/from 2 provinces. Outline of Biden plans. Watch demands now for more pre-emptive sanctions from US politicians. Escalations continuing.
Ukraine war bottom line: 1. Russia won’t allow NATO into Ukraine under any circumstances. 2. Ukraine’s Constitution declares it must join NATO. 3. East Europe NATO countries demand US, France, Germany extend NATO. All sides locked in. Situation appears increasingly like August 1914
NATO war hawks (including US Demo. party politicians) at Munich meeting project unanimous agreement NATO is destined for Ukraine no matter what Putin does. Yet, reports say German new Chancellor, Schultz, not on board & France’s Macron likely not also. What’s the truth?
Why is US now saying new sanctions against Russia won’t include blocking Russia from SWIFT intl payments system? Because too many countries depend on Russian oil. (SWIFT blocking needed for sanctions on Russian oil sales)-i.e.global oil corps to be exempt from sanctions
Dem politicians also now hyping “don’t forget Taiwan”. USA always at war somewhere. 16 wars since 1950. (8 wins, 5 losses, 3 draws). So let’s start #17, with largest country (Russia) & most populace (China)–after failing to win against 11th century peasant (Afghanistan)
Should Russia invade, global oil prices will soar well above $100/bbl, sending inflation to double digit levels (already 2/3 of US 7.5% due to oil prices). When oil surges > $100 almost always provokes a recession. (ex. 2008, 1990, 1980)
At NATO Munich meeting yesterday, NATO Secretary, Stoltenberg, and US VP Harris declare Russia’s actions now ensure NATO will allow Ukraine to join soon. Russia now backed into corner: attempt to prevent Ukraine in NATO now assured. US-NATO now daring Russia to invade
Biden today says Russia invades next week as provocations begin in east Ukraine. Will soon rise in number & weight. (But who’s doing the provocations is the question?) Should we believe Biden? Remember US false flags: ‘yellow cake’, WMDs, incubator babies, Tonkin Gulf…
Make no mistake, there are 3 sets negotiations going on re. Ukraine right now: US with Russia, Russia with W. Europe (esp. Germany, France) & W. Europe with US. Putin’s more interested in latter two than Russia-US. Europe has most to lose from invasion; USA much to gain
Dr. Jack Rasmus
2-25-22
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